Conflict in the East may boost Brazil's fuel exports

The worsening tensions in the Middle East may have mixed effects on Brazilian foreign trade, with a possible increase in fuel exports and a temporary negative impact on food sales. This assessment comes from Herlon Brandão, Director of Statistics and Foreign Trade Studies at the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services (MDIC). In an interview on Thursday (5) to comment on trade balance data, Brandão stated that conflicts in the region tend to put pressure on oil prices in the international market, which tends to benefit Brazil, which is a net exporter of the product. “Brazil is a net exporter of oil, and as oil prices rise, the fuel trade balance tends to increase,” said the MDIC director. On the other hand, Brandão pointed out that Middle Eastern countries are important buyers of Brazilian food products, such as chicken, corn, sugar, and halal products (produced according to Islamic standards). According to the director, any negative impact on sales of these products should be temporary. "The demand for food in these countries will not disappear. Flows tend to normalize," he said. According to MDIC data, about 32% of Brazilian corn exports are destined for the Middle East. The share reaches 30% in the case of poultry meat, 17% for sugar, and 7% for beef. Trade balance figures also show significant changes in Brazil's trade with its main partners. Brazilian exports to the United States totaled USD 2.523 billion in February, down 20.3% from the same month last year. Imports also declined, falling 16.5% to USD 2.788 billion. As a result, the trade balance with the country was negative at USD 265 million. This was the seventh consecutive decline in sales to the US market, a movement associated with the 50% surcharge imposed by President Donald Trump's administration on Brazilian products in mid-2025. At the end of February, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the surcharge, but the repercussions on the trade balance are only expected to appear in the coming months. In the opposite direction, exports to China recorded strong growth. In February, Brazilian sales to the Asian country totaled USD 7.220 billion, up 38.7% compared to the USD 5.206 billion recorded in the same month of 2025. Imports from China fell 31.3% in the period, totaling USD 5.494 billion. The result was a USD 1.73 billion surplus in the trade balance with the Asian country. According to Brandão, one of the factors that influenced the import figures was the purchase of an oil platform worth around USD 2.5 billion. The equipment was purchased from South Korea, which also impacted regional trade statistics. Brazilian exports to the European Union grew 34.7% in February, reaching USD 4.232 billion. Imports from the bloc fell 10.8% to USD 3.301 billion, resulting in a surplus of USD 931 million. In trade with Argentina, there was a decline in both sales and purchases. Exports fell 26.5%, totaling USD 1.057 billion, while imports fell 19.2% to USD 850 million. Even so, Brazil recorded a surplus of USD 207 million in trade with its neighbor. China, the United States, the European Union, and Argentina are among Brazil's main trading partners and directly influence the country's trade balance performance.