Mercabarna forecasts that food distribution will rise by up to 8% at Christmas, with almost no impact from swine fever.

Neither the three health crises affecting Catalan livestock—Contagious Nodular Dermatitis (CND) on farms in Girona, avian flu throughout Catalonia, and African swine fever (ASF) in Barcelona—nor the bureaucratic obstacles imposed by Brussels—in terms of the days allowed for trawling and the bureaucratic burden on farmers—will prevent food from reaching every table this Christmas. The Mercabarna wholesalers' association explained on Thursday that the distribution of fresh food such as meat, fish, and vegetables will increase by between 2% and 8% compared to 2024, reaching 100,000 tons. This means that the threat of a Christmas shortage of fish and seafood will not materialize, after the European Commission extended the number of days fishermen are allowed to go out to sea a month ago. It also allays fears that the swine fever crisis will have an immediate impact on the market: Mercabarna has explained that pork is hardly consumed at Christmas, with beef and lamb being the preferred choices. The impact of ASF, a virus that had not been present in Spain since 1994 and was detected two weeks ago in the Collserola area, will not be immediate on domestic demand for Christmas, but it is already affecting exports: Spain lost its ASF-free status—a status it would regain after a year without new detections—and the markets to which it exports were automatically closed, except for those that are accepting, such as China and South Korea, to buy pork from Spain except for that coming from the contaminated region. This drop in exports has led to a logical fall in the wholesale price of pork, as all this volume would now be sold on the domestic market: in Mercolleida, the reference market for this product in Spain, the price has fallen by up to 17%. However, according to several sources in the sector, this drop in prices has not yet reached the end consumer, in a context of soaring consumption due to the approach of the Christmas holidays: pork is being sold in stores at a similar price to usual. Nor has demand fallen for the time being. ASF is not transmitted to humans or other species, and the meat can be consumed without risk. Although the sector points out that the quality of the product remains unchanged and that the outbreak is contained, there are still doubts as to whether demand for pork will also fall in the domestic market after Christmas. For now, Mercabarna rules out any impact of ASF on Christmas for one very simple reason: pork is not consumed as much during this period. “Pork is not consumed as much at Christmas as beef, fish, seafood, or poultry,” said Martí Colomer, spokesperson for the meat sector at Mercabarna. He pointed out that in the Catalan pork sector, “things are done very well and the public can rest assured that the product is of very high quality.” In the case of other products affected by health crises, the impact has been felt in the form of price increases. Both BSE in cattle and avian flu forced the slaughter of thousands of head of cattle and chickens—2,500 head of cattle and 2.5 million birds, respectively—which reduced supply and drove up prices. Prices, Prats also pointed out, have risen due to trade wars and fishing restrictions. The distribution of beef, lamb, and goat meat will increase by around 8% this Christmas, reaching 2,200 tons. In the poultry sector, despite not providing an exact estimated distribution figure, Mercabarna wholesalers expect to increase sales of these animals by 8% compared to 2024. Wholesalers expect the distribution of fresh fish, fruit, and vegetables to grow by 2%, while the distribution of seafood, meat, and select poultry will increase by between 5% and 8%. According to Pere Prats, vice president of Assocome, this overall increase in distribution is due to the long weekend generated this year by Christmas, which falls on a Thursday, and Sant Esteve, a public holiday in Catalonia, which falls on a Friday and links up with the weekend. Six thousand tons of fish and seafood are expected to be sold. Àngel Mañez, president of the Wholesalers' Guild of the Mercabarna Central Fish Market, explained that the price of fish has risen by 6% during the year, which is why Christmas fish and seafood purchases began in September. Regarding European restrictions on trawling, Máñez explained that although the threat for this Christmas has been neutralized thanks to an increase in the number of days allowed, the uncertainty will continue next year. This Thursday, the Minister of Agriculture, Luis Planas, and the regional minister for agriculture in the Catalan government, Òscar Ordeig, are meeting in Brussels to discuss the number of fishing days allowed for 2026. “We need to hear good news as soon as possible because, if not, we're going to have a hard time,” Máñez predicted.