They expect disinflation to be on track and the CPI to fall below 2% in August
According to the consensus among local market analysts, the disinflation process in the Argentine economy—which resumed in April after being interrupted since July of last year—is proceeding smoothly and is expected to continue over the coming months. "Based on their estimates, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to have closed at 2.3% in May, down from 2.6% in April, and will continue on a downward trajectory starting this month, bringing it to between 2.2% and 2.1% before breaking below the 2% threshold in August and falling to a range of 1.7% to 1.8% between October and November." While this projection is still far from the official expectation—it is worth recalling that President Javier Milei had predicted that inflation would reach zero or “zero point something” by August 2026—it is the first to incorporate downward revisions among the forecasters who have demonstrated the greatest accuracy (the so-called Top 10) in anticipating monthly price trends. Just a month ago, that...
